Hyperliquid HIP-4 outcome markets explained
HIP-4 adds outcome markets, Hyperliquid's version of prediction markets, to the same exchange as perps and spot. Each contract pays 1 if an event happens and 0 if it doesn't, so its price works like a probability.
How an outcome contract works
- Priced between 0 and 1. A price of 0.62 means the market puts the chance at about 62%.
- Fixed payoff. Buy YES at 0.62: you get 1 if the event happens (profit 0.38) and 0 if not (loss 0.62).
- No leverage, no liquidation. Positions are fully collateralized at 1x, so the most you can lose is what you paid.
- Settled in a stablecoin. At launch that was USDH, which has since been phased out in favour of USDC, so check which collateral a market uses in the app. An oracle posts the result, trading stops and positions settle.
Where it stands
| Feb 2026 | HIP-4 announced and launched on testnet |
| 2 May 2026 | Live on mainnet with curated crypto price markets, starting with a daily BTC market |
| Jul 2026 | Permissionless deployment announced: deployers would stake 500,000 HYPE, which validators can slash for bad markets or wrong settlement. Planned for testnet first, then mainnet |
Details of permissionless deployment were described as preliminary. Check the app and official announcements for what is live today.
How to trade one
- Set up a Hyperliquid account and deposit USDC (beginner tutorial).
- Check which collateral the outcome market uses. If it isn't the USDC you deposited, swap on Hyperliquid spot.
- Open the outcome market, decide YES or NO, and place a limit or market order.
- Close any time before resolution, or hold until it settles at 1 or 0.
New markets can open with a short auction before continuous trading starts, so the first price is set in one batch.
Fees
At launch, opening a position was free, with fees charged when you close or at settlement, and outcome books paid no maker rebates. HYPE stakers get a lower taker fee. Builders who deploy markets can add their own fee share. Check the fee shown in the order panel, since this is new and may change.
HIP-4 vs Polymarket
| Hyperliquid HIP-4 | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement token | Stablecoin (USDH at launch, since phased out) | Its own stablecoin |
| Resolution | Authorized oracle, optional challenge window | UMA optimistic oracle |
| Account | Same account as your perps and spot | Separate platform |
| Markets | Mostly crypto prices so far | Politics, sports, culture and more |
Risks
- You can lose the full amount you paid.
- Results depend on the oracle; disputes are possible.
- New markets can be thin, so spreads may be wide.
- Prediction markets are restricted in some countries.
FAQ
What is HIP-4 on Hyperliquid?
HIP-4 adds outcome (prediction) markets: contracts priced from 0 to 1 that pay 1 if an event happens and 0 if not, settled in a stablecoin.
Is HIP-4 live?
Yes. It went live on mainnet on 2 May 2026 with curated crypto price markets. Permissionless deployment by builders was announced in July 2026 as a future upgrade.
Can I use leverage on HIP-4?
No. Outcome positions are fully collateralized at 1x, so there are no liquidations and the maximum loss is what you paid.
How is HIP-4 different from Polymarket?
It runs inside Hyperliquid's own exchange and account and uses an authorized oracle; Polymarket is a separate platform with a much wider range of topics.